Travel industry warned about unemployment forecast

Unemployment rate is predicted by the Bank of England to rise from 4.1% to 4.6%

The travel industry has been warned about a potential dent in demand if unemployment projections are accurate.

Chris Photi, head of travel and leisure at White Hart Associates, told the annual InteleTravel conference that the unemployment rate is predicted by the Bank of England to rise from 4.1% to 4.6% by the third quarter of 2025.

“That’s not great for consumer spend,” he said. “If a person hasn’t got a job, they’re not going to spend money on holidays, so that’s something to watch.”

He also said the consumer confidence index had dropped seven points to its lowest level since March 2024, though the performance remains higher than at this time last year.

Despite the challenges, however, he said the demand for travel continues to be “positive”.

“The UK consumer generally will give up discretionary spend in other areas rather than lose their wonderful time with holidays you sell to them,” he added, citing evidence that people would rather cut down on dining out in restaurants or purchasing takeaways than risk giving up trips abroad.

“That’s really good news,” he said. “The UK consumer really robustly supports your industry by their discretionary spend.”