Mabrian forecasts Middle East air connectivity to grow in 2025

Türkiye, UAE and Saudi Arabia lead the way

Analysis of international seat availability for 2025 by travel intelligence company, Mabrian, has revealed the nine top Middle East destinations eyeing growth this year.

The data reveals key shifts in the Middle East’s aviation landscape, underscoring the need for strategic route development, airline partnerships, and network optimisation to strengthen the Middle East’s position as a global aviation hub.

Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates - UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrein collectively account for 12% of the total global inbound air seats scheduled for the full year 2025. 

This study is part of a series of Middle East market insights Mabrian is set to release in the lead-up to the Arabian Travel Market 2025.

Key take aways of this study indicate that the UAE and Türkiye maintain their positions as top global connectivity hubs; Saudi Arabia emerges as a fast-growing competitor; Qatar stabilises after sustained expansion; Egypt and Jordan are set to outpace global growth rates; and Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait face declining inbound connectivity. 

When considering the forecast for the next six months compared to the same period in 2024, the year-over-year growth in international air seats for both the UAE (+6.1%) and Türkiye (+6.3%) is close to the global average (+6.5%). 

However, the full-year increase in inbound seats for 2025 in the UAE (+3.4%) and Türkiye (+4.2%) is expected to be slightly lower than the global average (+6%).

“Undoubtedly, the UAE and Türkiye have solidified their positions as international hubs for the Middle East - not only due to their strategic geographic locations but also as a result of smart route development strategies,” explains Carlos Cendra, Mabrian Partner and Director of Marketing and Communications. 

“These include leveraging stopovers and enhancing holiday itineraries, as well as the strength of their flagship airlines. 

“The next step is to take a quantum leap in tourism product development, as many of them are already doing, to capture and retain a greater share of these travellers in their destinations.”

Saudi Arabia was a standout performer - in addition to being the third-best connected country in the Middle East and ranking among the top 20 worldwide in terms of international air connectivity, Saudi is expected to grow by +8% over the next six months and by +5.2% throughout 2025, reaching a total of 43.1 million international air seats by year’s end.

Saudi Arabia has experienced the second-highest growth in international air connectivity since 2019 (+38%), following Egypt (+51%). 

“Even though Saudi Arabia’s international seat capacity is about half that of the UAE, the region’s main connectivity hub, this growth highlights the country’s potential to establish a strong connectivity triangle with the UAE and Qatar,” a Mabrian expert said.

Two other key travel destinations also stand out due to their projected increase in inbound air seats for both the upcoming semester and the full year 2025: Jordan and Egypt. 

Jordan is set to double the global growth rate, achieving a +13% year-round increase in inbound air seats (equivalent to 6.5 million). 

This expansion aims to restore foreign demand in 2025, following a -6.4% decline in international air connectivity in 2024 compared to 2019. Egypt is expected to boost international connectivity by increasing air seat capacity by +11.4% over the next six months and by +8.1% throughout 2025, reaching 28 million inbound seats and further strengthening its position as a leading international destination in the Middle East.